Wall Street’s most expensive horse race is entering its final stretch. Nvidia (NVDA) trades at $3.74 trillion and Microsoft (MSFT) trades at $3.66 trillion. Wedbush’s Dan Ives believes the duo will sprint past $4 trillion in market value before summer ends. Driving these mammoth market caps, Ives argues that every dollar spent on Nvidia’s chips leads to $8 to $10 multiplication across the rest of the tech sector.

Both companies are already posting blockbuster financials, and each has a near-monopolistic position in their respective AI niches. Thus, it’s worth taking a deeper look at Nvidia and Microsoft here. 

Stock #1: Nvidia (NVDA)

Dan Ives is highly bullish on NVDA stock and calls Nvidia the “foundation for the AI revolution,” adding that CEO Jensen Huang is the “Godfather of AI.” His rationale is that cloud service providers will increasingly acquire more AI-capable chips to build out their services.

Nvidia is often the first, and sometimes the only, supplier these companies purchase from. It has been able to position itself as a premier supplier of both AI hardware and the required software for data centers. Ives believes the use cases of AI are “exploding” across many verticals.

There is good substance to Ives’ claim that NVDA stock may indeed break through $4 trillion this summer. The stock broke through the $150 resistance level on June 25 and hit a new all-time high above $158 on June 27. It has been building on that momentum since. With $150 no longer a ceiling, its next resistance levels are in the low-$160 range, and some analysts have targets as high as $250 on shares. There have been no indications that Nvidia’s domestic customers are slowing down orders, and Blackwell remains fully booked for the year.

The average analyst is also optimistic on NVDA, with a price target of $176.62. This implies 14% upside, or a market capitalization of roughly $4.3 trillion.

Stock #2: Microsoft (MSFT)

Although Microsoft has temporarily lost its spot as the No. 1 most valuable company in the world, it may soon be able to close that gap as its AI momentum has been accelerating, and so has the stock.

MSFT stock currently trades near $491. It is likely to meet some resistance near $500, but breaking through that level could unlock enough upside to get past Nvidia again. It is spending $80 billion on AI-related capital expenses in 2025 to add to its momentum.

Dan Ives has set a price target of $600 on MSFT, up from $515 previously. On CNBC, he was asked, “$600 doesn’t feel too lofty?... How much has to go right for that to happen?”

Ives replied and said, “I think $600 is probably conservative, I’m thinking about the next 18 months.” He believes we are going into the software phase of AI and that CEO Satya Nadella is “playing chess” while the rest are playing checkers.

Most analysts are still in the “conservative” camp, but price targets go up to $626. The highest price target here implies around 27% upside, and a market cap of $4.65 trillion.